When we look from the present to the future, it is easier to see the scale, but not the direction; conversely, when we look back from the future, it is easier to see the direction, but not the scale.
This time, we change the perspective and look back from the future. In this way, we can see a lot of things besides product features when we look at Microsoft’s press conference. From this perspective, this press conference is like a charge. This battle may take ten or twenty years, and the final result may be that the current giant falls from the altar. Wasn’t IBM also a former overlord?
What will be the end of AI?
In the end of AI, people are no longer surrounded by various applications, but various robots.
Some are purely soft, and some have hardware bodies.
Some can move, and some cannot move.
To put it in a more vivid way, when you open your phone, half of the applications will be merged into a robot of an application. Reading, news, music, search, etc. no longer exist independently, but are represented by a robot.
Why do you say that?
If we believe that for individuals, the convenience of the interface with the digital world is the first priority, and we also believe that the effectiveness of intelligence (the driving force of convenience) = the IQ of the model x the depth of understanding of reality. Then the interface between this person and the digital world is destined to be normalized.
To be more specific, if an intelligent agent knows all your information and it is smart enough, then you don’t actually need a lot of scattered products, you just need an assistant, which acts as your agent in the digital world.
The form is not the key, whether it is voice, text, or graphical user interface.
Subsequent process from a technical perspective
There is another perspective to look at this matter.
In the past, the bottom layer of our computing structure was a computer with von Neumann architecture (including mobile phones), the middle was an operating system that encapsulated computing network capabilities, and above it were various applications.
Now it is equivalent to adding an intelligent agent to the system.
If this intelligent agent can stand up, you don’t need to pay attention to Android, Windows, etc. It will become a separate channel, representing both hardware and software.
The result is that your mobile phone, computer, and tablet have become “spiritual”.
In this way, there are two ways for individuals to connect with the digital world:
One is the system based on the graphical user interface and classification to search for various functional information in the past (the existing system).
The other is a robot based on natural language that does everything on behalf of others, and even keyboards and mice are not necessary here.
First, there is the confrontation between these two systems.
In the past, the latter was always pressed to the ground due to insufficient intelligence, including Siri. When this product appeared on the first day, Schmidt exclaimed that it would pose an essential threat to Google. But insufficient intelligence actually did not pose any threat until the large model appeared, which made the threat Schmidt said become a reality.
Once the latter method really rises, a new business model will be created. The new business model means that this robot is becoming more and more universal, that is, it is both a system and an application, and can do everything. The story is still the same story, but the degree is different.
If it is difficult to understand, you can look at the conception of Alexa in the past. The strategy is still it, but it started from the PC.
Photo/Henry’s TwoCents
In the past, the wolf came, and now it really starts to bite people. I wrote about this topic in the era of smart speakers, but looking back now, Apple and Amazon have both been similar manufacturers, but judging from their performance, they are not as good as Microsoft.
To summarize simply, it can be called: devices will “become refined” and become system-based super applications that integrate software and hardware, and this super application will devour the independent apps of the past.
Looking back from the end, the new business model has reignited the flames of competition
If we believe the end and process mentioned above, we will find that giants without special field attributes will merge.
There is no separate search, no separate information flow, all of which will be folded behind the robot, and the only question left is who folds whom.
The giants are too big, so this will be a bit like a national war, which may take a long time, but the underlying direction is destined.
What are special field attributes?
For example, a robot that does taxation and a daily assistant can only be two different robots.
For example, refrigerators and air conditioners will be independent robots no matter how they evolve.
General attributes no longer constitute the ability to define a separate category, such as search, information flow, productivity tools, etc.
This has actually happened in the past. In the early days of mobile apps, weather could also be a separate application, but later such applications almost disappeared. But in the past, the intelligence of machines was too poor, and the boundaries of integration were limited.
The integration cost was too low, and the convenience after integration was improved, and this situation eventually occurred.
The providers of weather data still exist, and everyone integrates their own applications on it.
Let’s look at the significance of Microsoft’s press conference
If what is said above is true, then the significance of Microsoft’s press conference is very obvious: this is a press conference that rekindles the flames of war.
It is very similar to King You of Zhou playing with the princes with beacons, and the Western Zhou Dynasty gradually faded away, heading straight for the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period. The relative calm of the past decade is probably over.
The products mentioned at the press conference can be seen as the beginning of PC robotization, and this robotization is driven by intelligence.
If this robot occupies a core position, most of the existing applications must be folded behind it. It will be more difficult to emerge independently. (You can imagine WeChat applets, and the actual large model-driven folding power is greater)
Once various applications are folded behind it, it can project this capability to various devices at a low cost. Cloud-based model-driven robots can do simple projections.
At this time, the search situation will become a bit like a weather application. Why do we need to input into a box instead of asking questions directly to our robots?
Microsoft defeated Netscape by bundling, but was actually defeated when it encountered Google + Chrome.
The underlying reason is very simple. In the competition of intelligent products, the one with higher intelligence wins.
This time Microsoft comes back. If the same rule is still followed, if Google’s model cannot catch up with OpenAI, it will be really dangerous.
From this perspective, this is actually the beginning of a big integration. Big integration is bound to be accompanied by big smoke.
It’s quite interesting.
In the past, the fierce competition in the Internet entered a stable state after 2015. Everyone accepted their fate and cultivated their own land.
In China, for example, Tencent no longer does e-commerce, Baidu no longer does food delivery, and so on.
AI will break this peaceful situation. This is not a question of who expects it, but the direction of technology built-in.
After this integration, the former survivors may not necessarily survive. You can predict who will disappear first.
If we break it down, it’s probably like this:
The first to bear the pressure are PC manufacturers. Don’t forget that Apple is still here.
The second is pure digital giants, such as Google.
It has little impact on Amazon’s e-commerce business, but it’s hard to say whether it will have an impact on the cloud business.
The intensity of competition will rise from a relatively gentle level to a fierce level.
At the end of the game, I’m afraid there will be a giant that is 10 times larger than the current one. If the market value of 2 trillion US dollars is multiplied by 10, it will be 20 trillion US dollars…
What will happen in China?
The driving force of intensity is actually the degree of intelligence.
The boundary of intelligence is the boundary of the product.
The domestic model is not very useful, but it helps to control the intensity of competition.
The domestic price war itself is not a life-and-death battle. It’s a bit like disliking each other, but it’s just a knock or a few words.
Winning is good, but not winning is not a big loss.
Once the degree of intelligence is raised, the situation will change completely.
In the case of low intelligence, everyone is doing different categories, and of course the intensity of competition is easy to control. Although information flow and search compete for the information consumption time of the same group of users, they are still different. The competition between takeout and takeout is not very good.
This is a bit like everyone is taking water from the river. You have it, I have it, and no one should monopolize the river. Now it suddenly becomes necessary to draw water from the well, and the control of the well will become a battleground.
You are a robot, and I am also a robot. Participants no longer have room to retreat.
Summary
It feels that the excitement in the Internet technology field has actually decreased a lot in recent years, unlike the past when there were takeout subsidies, taxi subsidies, and invitation codes for buying mobile phones. Whether it is lively or not is not determined by that person, but when the technology dividend is exhausted, everyone has become honest. From this perspective, AI is very much like a spoiler, making people in the game restless. However, it should not be so fast this time, after all, the ability of the large model is not as good as expected, but it is more certain that with every step forward in the ability of the model, the intensity of competition will probably increase by one point.
